CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-01-31T16:34:00-CME-001)

Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Feb 03 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at moderate levels as both Regions 1967
(S13W12, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) and 1968 (N10W10, Ekc/Beta-gamma)
contributed to low level M-class flare activity. These flares included
an M1 at 02/1406 UTC, an M3 at 02/1811 UTC, and an M1 at 02/2204 UTC
from Region 1967 as well as an M1 at 02/1629 UTC from Region 1968. Both
Regions 1967 and 1968 still appear to be in a growth phase, however
accumulation in areal coverage has slowed over the past 24 hours. 
Region 1967 has had some consolidation within its intermediate spot
area, however it maintains several strong deltas with a relatively
southeast to northwest orientation.
Beginning at approximately 03/0621 UTC, a filament eruption was observed
just south of Region 1967. Analysis of a potential coronal mass
ejection from this event are in process as imagery becomes available.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) during
the forecast period (03-05 Feb).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels for the forecast period (03-05 Feb). A slight
chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (above S1-Minor)
during the period (03-05 Feb) as Region 1967 moves into a better
connected location.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind continued at nominal levels with solar wind speed in the 360
km/s to 420 km/s range until 02/2318 UTC when an increase in solar wind
speed to 465 km/s occurred. Accompanying this increase were also
increases in density to 7 p/cc and total field from 5 nT to 8 nT. This
was likely indicative of the passage of the 30 Jan CME. Thereafter,
total field remained fairly steady near 7 nT with the Bz component
between +7 nT and -5 nT. Solar wind speed declined to around 360 km/s
by the end of the period. Phi angle was mostly negative (towards) with
minor variations into a positive (away) sector.
.Forecast...
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected on day 1 (03 Feb). Reanalysis
of coronagraph imagery from 31 Jan suggests there is a chance for a weak
passage from the 31 Jan coronal mass ejection from Region 1968 late on
Day 2 (04 Feb). This would bring more turbulent solar wind conditions. 
Day 3 (05 Feb) is expected to see a nominal solar wind environment.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels with the
possibility of unsettled periods by late on day 2 (04 Feb) due to a
potential glancing blow from the 31 Jan CME.
--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Feb 03 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 03-Feb 05 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 03-Feb 05 2014
 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05
00-03UT 2 2 2 
03-06UT 2 1 1 
06-09UT 2 1 1 
09-12UT 1 1 1 
12-15UT 2 1 1 
15-18UT 1 1 1 
18-21UT 1 3 2 
21-00UT 2 2 2 
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 03-Feb 05 2014
 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: A slight chance exists for an S1 (Minor) or greater
solar radiation storm for the forecast period (03-05 Feb) as Region 1967
moves into a better connected location.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 02 2014 1811 UTC
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 03-Feb 05 2014
 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05
R1-R2 80% 80% 80%
R3 or greater 50% 50% 50%
Rationale: Category R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected
with a chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater due to flare potential from
Regions 1967 and 1968.

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